This article was originally written on the 29th of July, 2022.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, and the subsequent sanctions package imposed by Western actors on Russia, two major European governments have already fallen, namely in the UK and Italy. It seems as though it is only a matter of time before regime change occurs in more Western countries.
On July 7th, Boris Johnson resigned as Prime Minister of the UK. Johnson’s reign as PM had been filled with controversy. In late 2021, it was revealed Johnson and his staff breached their own Covid-19 regulations at a social gathering in and around 10 Downing Street in 2020. This has become widely known as the “Partygate” scandal, and damaged Johnson’s reputation. More recently, Johnson came under fire for appointing Chris Pincher, who is alleged to have a history of sexual misconduct, as Deputy Chief Whip.
Ultimately, Johnson’s position as PM became untenable when multiple members of his own cabinet resigned within the span of two days, publicly stating that they had lost trust in Johnson’s judgment and ability to lead. For example, Sajid Javid, who had served as Johnson’s Health Secretary, resigned from his post stating that he questioned Johnson’s “integrity”.
However, the true reasons for Johnson’s resignation run deeper than his ethics scandals, and it is hard to ignore the impact the country’s woeful economic situation had on his ability to remain in charge. Inflation in the UK hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in May, which ranks the highest among the G7 economies, with some predicting inflation to climb beyond 11% later in the year. Moreover, the Russian ruble recently reached a seven-year high to the pound sterling, while the US dollar reached a 38-year high to the pound in July. While this in itself is not necessarily a big problem for the UK, it suggests a relative decline in economic strength.
The dire shape of the UK’s economy has also led to the largest cost-of-living crisis in recent decades, with CNN reporting that lower-income households are increasingly having to choose between “heating and eating”. Food prices are surging, and average household energy bills are expected to rise by about 50% in winter.
Supporting Zelensky’s Ukraine by imposing sanctions on Russia has clearly been a major factor in the UK’s economic woes. In 2021, the UK received 24% of their refined crude oil imports from Russia. Less Russian imports this year, coupled with surging energy prices around the globe, as a result of the sanctions, have greatly contributed to the cost-of-living crisis. This led many UK citizens to turn on Johnson, an attitude which trickled over into parliament and Johnson’s cabinet itself. One gets the sense that the Conservatives felt a political need to remove Johnson, due to the dwindling support of the public. While the ethical scandals are portrayed as the main reason for Johnson’s collapse, it is more likely the dismal economic situation that led to his downfall.
It is important to note that Johnson is not merely a victim of the sanctions against Russia, which have terribly backfired, but rather has been one of Ukraine’s closest Western allies, and actively pushed for the shock and awe sanctions package. In fact, Johnson has allegedly even struck up a close bond with Volodymyr Zelensky, as exemplified by his soon-to-be three visits to Kiev in the span of just a few months. Johnson is also said to have had a long phone call with Zelensky on the day he resigned as Prime Minister. Zelensky has since spoken very highly of Johnson to the media, calling him a “true friend to Ukraine”, and stating that his “personal leadership and charisma” made his support for Ukraine “special”. In American media, Johnson has been referred to as Ukraine’s “darling”.
It is not unreasonable to suggest that Johnson used the crisis in Ukraine to distract from his personal scandals, and the declining state of the UK itself. On the matter, British journalist Peter Kellner proclaimed that “[Johnson] is not the first, and won’t be the last, national leader to use toughness abroad to disguise weakness at home.” However, Johnson’s efforts to distract his populace from domestic problems were ultimately in vein, as he was finally left with no choice but to resign.
Only two weeks after Johnson’s resignation, Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi also stepped down from his post. Draghi lost the support of several members of his coalition, which left him unable to effectively govern, leading to his resignation. Draghi, a former head of the European Central Bank, was widely known to be a staunch supporter of continued EU integration, which is also reflected in his Ukraine policy. Under Draghi, Italy sent several hundred million euros worth of weapons to Ukraine. Draghi will continue to govern in a caretaker role until snap elections are held in late September.
Polling suggests that a right-wing coalition could be in the offing for Italy, with Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia currently leading in the polls. The coalition could be rounded out by Matteo Salvini’s Lega and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. Some have suggested that a right-wing coalition, led by Meloni, would be less supportive of the economic measures against Russia than Draghi’s government had been. However, Meloni has gone out of her way to criticize Putin, likely in the hopes of gaining support from Ukraine-sympathetic voters. In contrast, potential coalition partner Matteo Salvini has been known to be a Putin ‘admirer’ in the past, and has not distanced himself from Russia. Furthermore, Silvio Berlusconi spoke out against supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia earlier this year. Instead of sending weapons to Ukraine, Berlusconi suggested that Europe “make a peace proposal, [and try] to get the Ukrainians to accept Putin’s demands.”
Despite Meloni’s pledge to continue to support Ukraine if she became Prime Minister, it is reasonable to think that a right-wing coalition with Meloni, Salvini and Berlusconi as leaders would be less willing to toe the EU-line than Draghi’s government. This potential political shift in Italy may be the first sign that Europe’s support for Ukraine is dwindling.
One gets the sense that public support for the war in Ukraine is steadily decreasing, as more and more people begin to realize the costs that Western sanctions on Russia are having on their own countries and living conditions.
In Germany, fears of a severe energy crisis are growing, both within the general population and the political class. Christian Democratic politician Michael Kretschmer, currently serving as Minister President of Saxony, recently spoke out against Germany’s line of policy on Russia. He stated that the “entire economic system is in danger of collapsing” and that Germany could become “de-industrialized”. He added: “If we realize that we cannot for now give up on Russian gas, then it is bitter but it is the reality, and we must act accordingly.” With his statements, Kretschmer is echoing what German business leaders have said for months. In addition, a poll conducted by INSA for the Bild am Sonntag suggested that 47% of Germans believe that the sanctions are hurting their own country more than Russia, with only 12% supporting the opposite view.
Meanwhile, with citizens being asked to limit their energy consumption, and prices continuing to rise, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has warned of civil unrest taking place in Germany in the coming months. Overall, the German government is increasingly looking out of its depth. Once temperatures begin to drop and energy consumption inevitably increases, it is not unthinkable that a political storm will brew over Germany, resulting in the ousting of Olaf Scholz’s government.
The situation is similarly dire in the United States, where Joe Biden now has a 57% disapproval rating, according to FiveThirtyEight. His net approval rating is -19% - meaning that his disapproval rating is 19% higher than his approval rating - the worst at this point in the presidential term since Harry Truman in 1950. American voters are particularly discontent with his handling of foreign policy, including the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the economy.
The Biden administration has been one of the leading actors in the West’s reaction to the invasion, exerting influence over its NATO allies to continue to support Ukraine, even at the expense of their own economies. The US has also sent several billion dollars’ worth of support to Ukraine, as part of the $40 billion aid package Biden signed in May, which is expected to last until September.
One wonders whether American citizens would prefer this money to be spent on improving the domestic situation, which is steadily worsening. US inflation marked a 40-year high earlier in the year, as it soared above 9%. The US GDP also shrunk for the second straight quarter, signaling a start of a recession. Like Europeans, Americans are facing a cost-of-living crisis, with food and gas prices continuing to rise and no end in sight.
With support for the Biden administration waning, the Republicans are expected to win big in the midterm elections happening later in the year. The growing disapproval of Biden and his policies, both domestically and abroad, shows that American voters desire a drastic political change.
Across the world, it seems as though ordinary citizens are slowly realizing that they are not content with giving up their living standards over Ukraine. The fall of Johnson and Draghi may be the beginning of the end for the current array of Western leaders. The abysmal economic situation in Europe and the US is impossible to ignore, and it may soon be time for a drastic change in policies. Time will tell whether a ‘Zelensky Curse’ will sweep over Western governments.